Two Farm Bureau analysts put together some good summary points and trend analysis of H-2A data over the past year. I’ll include links to both analysis summaries at the end of this article. Cameron Castillo from Farm Bureau put together a really solid analysis of the latest set of H-2A data, along with some key trends and some emerging regional differences worth watching. This analysis follows a similar analysis 6 months ago from another Farm Bureau analyst.
Here are the highlights:
- Certified H-2A positions in fiscal year 2025 (FY25) were 398,258, and almost 50% of them work in Florida, Georgia, California, Washington, and North Carolina. All 5 have large specialty crop acreage counts and GDP. Florida is the fastest growing H-2A state with over 14% of FY25 certifications by itself.
- One big reason for the continued growth in H-2A usage is that only 182 positions out of over 415,000 advertised received a domestic applicant in FY25 (less than .04%). This points to the continued decline in domestic farm worker availability, which creates an increasing demand for H-2A international farm workers.
- The H-2A program grew by 13,358 certified positions in FY25, the first year in program history with over 400,000 workers requested. Overall, the program has grown 185% in the last 10 years and by significantly more than double that in the last 20 years. All of the factors that have been creating H-2A demand are still largely in place.
- The H-2A gains were all over the US, with 38 states increasing their H-2A worker demand in FY25. Some of the largest H-2A usage states, including California and Washington, saw significant declines in H-2A usage in FY25. The reason for the drops in these states, which remain large specialty crop states, is hard to determine. One theory is that the ongoing regulatory cost risks in major specialty crop production states is pushing acreage to other states – and obviously if the acreage moves the H-2A workers move with it.
There are a lot more details in the Farm Bureau analysis, and I encourage everyone to give both articles a read if you have the time. In the meantime, I want to shift the focus away from H-2A growth and what it means for growers.
Many of you know that my rationale on the ongoing need for automation is that many growers end up in a position where there are only two choices to remain competitive – automate to help solve labor challenges (where labor costs $30+/hour in high regulatory cost states with large H-2A usage – compared to $4-5/hour in Mexico and many South American countries) or relocate the acreage to places with lower labor costs (and often domestic labor as a work force, which creates a structural advantage relative to states like California and Washington.
So if we look at automation, much of the progress continues to be in non-harvest activities. We estimate that segment (which is 1/3 of the total farm worker hours) to be 3-5% automated and forecast to get to 15-20% in the next 5 years. The H-2A numbers above only create a larger push for more automation. The sad part about these numbers is that the bad numbers above for H-2A create pressure on growers to continually re-evaluate the automate vs. relocate decision making process.
If H-2A continues to grow (and it is forecast to get to 500,000+ workers nationwide in the next 5-10 years – if not more), the cost pressures on all specialty crop growers will only increase. The only people this is good news for are automation startup founders – and H-2A continues to increase the need for their products when they can meet grower economics. This increasing opportunity will need to be used to help convince investors of the size of the market (the total addressable market for automation being labor costs) and that the automation market is worth investing in from a venture capital perspective. With a 70% drop in VC the last 4 years, startup founders need to do a better job than ever of matching their product and revenue roadmap with a fundraising pitch.
Links to Farm Bureau articles: