Recent tariff increases put in place by the Biden administration on electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors and aluminum and steel products from China could have a devastating impact on exports of farm products, according to a recent study.

Economists from UC Davis and North Dakota State University evaluated the potential implications of the U.S. revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status, which currently allows China to trade with the United States at most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff rates. They found that if China retaliated against a change in China’s PNTR status, it could lead to a 9.5% increase in China’s agricultural import tariffs, resulting in potential trade losses to California agriculture of around $1 billion annually.

“The impact on import tariffs for non-agricultural sectors would be even larger, with the average import tariff going up from 3.9% to 32.5%,” Colin A. Carter, a study co-author and a distinguished professor in UC Davis’ Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said in the release.

Economists estimated an average decline in California export value between 28.4% and 34.8% when comparing a scenario where China’s PNTR status is revoked to one where it is not, according to the release. That decline translates to an estimated trade loss of between $800 million and $1 billion, using 2023 California agricultural export numbers. The crops that heavily rely on China as an export market, such as tree nuts, would be more seriously impacted.

To read the study in full, click here.